Market outlook
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Inflation: what’s next, and how to position portfolios
Many investors are wondering if inflation is here to stay, and how a sharply rising Consumer Price Index (CPI) may impact performance across asset classes.
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Fascination with inflation: Three-minute macro
Inflation is top of mind, and for good reason. This month's three-minute macro dives into three inflation stories.
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Get back to work: Three-minute macro
We question whether the bullish consensus view on services is correctly pricing in working professionals’ increasing return to the office. Meanwhile, the rise of electric vehicles may mean copper’s usefulness as an economic indicator could wane in the future. Finally, we’re cautious on President Biden’s infrastructure deal’s potential contribution to the U.S. economy.
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Macro anchors shaping the global growth outlook
The current global economic recovery remains delicate. We examine key macroeconomic themes that could influence global growth trajectory in the near term.
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The Delta effect: Three-minute macro
The Delta variant of COVID-19 is certainly complicating the outlook for the global economy, and we’re keeping an eye on five ways that those complications may materialize. We also take an ESG lens on the gig economy and discuss the yield situation among emerging-market debt.
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It’s just a phase: Three-minute macro
Inflation is top of mind and with good cause: It’ll be tough to call as it likely will go through ups and downs over the next few years. Meanwhile, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s language has market participants on their toes, while Asian exports should heavily affect the economy in the region.
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Market outlook—looking beyond the reopening
Optimism about the lifting of lockdown restrictions has been offset by concerns about inflation. How might it affect investment returns?
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Three-minute macro: mean reversion
As we head into the reopening and slowly return to a more normal life, the concept of mean reversion should play a big role in the coming months. In the United States, we expect COVID-19-affected inflation categories to mean-revert while we're getting strong signals from Europe that the economic recovery is under way. In Asia, however, a resurgence of COVID-19 led to a decline in manufacturing activity.
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Midcycle investing: a guide to portfolio construction
Different phases of the economic cycle can call for a different investment approach. We put current conditions in context and offer ideas for tilting portfolios toward midcycle opportunities.
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