Market outlook
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Data, data, everywhere: Three-minute macro
Data is our word of the month. Despite some surprising signs of economic resilience in the United States, Manulife Investment Management's leading indicators still have us convinced a recession is on the way. Meanwhile, we don’t think the strong unemployment rate is a perfectly accurate description of the current (and future) labor market. Finally, the S&P 500 Index is looking strong so far this year, but we dive into how much of that performance is due to the artificial intelligence craze.
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Three themes shaping asset allocation in H2 2023
The global economy and financial markets proved to be more resilient than expected in the first half of the year. Should investors expect a repeat performance in H2 2023? One asset allocator shares his views.
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Beyond the Fed’s hawkish “pause”: three macro elements to consider
The U.S. Federal Reserve kept rates steady at its June meeting. But looking deeper, there are implications for investors.
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Looking past the debt ceiling: crisis averted, now what?
The U.S. debt ceiling may be behind us, but any sense of relief may turn out to be short-lived as other issues come to the fore. Read more.
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Will U.S. banking woes accelerate the shift to a fragmented global economy?
The creation of a dual-tier banking system in the United States could mark the beginning of the next phase of deglobalization. We examine its likely implications for the global economy.
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Known unknowns: Three-minute macro
We're in an environment ripe with significant uncertainties that reduce visibility and make it difficult to have high conviction. Banking fragilities continue and the debt ceiling drama will be harmful to growth, no matter how it resolves. Meanwhile, we’re keeping an eye on European equities, which we think are losing their shine.
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As the debt limit is breached, investors should take caution
The argument for high-quality investments has just gotten stronger with the U.S. government staring down a potential default as early as June 1. We take a closer look at the ramifications.
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The signals and the noise: Three-minute macro
With such a strong job market, how can a recession possibly be in the works? Our answer lies in some troubling leading indicators for growth. At the same time, we think oil’s importance in inflation means some reprieve for the Consumer Price Index in the future. Finally, we note that central banks’ bias toward rate hikes may mean more cuts down the road.
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Is the Fed as dovish as the market thinks it is?
Concerns about the strength of the global financial system have led to a significant shift in market expectations of when the U.S. Federal Reserve might start lowering interest rates. Has the market been too optimistic?
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Assessing the contagion risk from ongoing banking concerns to Asia
Trouble in the banking sector on both sides of the Atlantic has sparked fears of broader contagion. To what extent will these developments affect Asia's economies? Read more.
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