Market outlook
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Asset allocation outlook: proceed with caution
As 2024 gets under way, we look at some of the themes driving our asset allocation outlook.
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2024 market outlook: stocks are stories, bonds are math
Equity and bond markets told two very different stories over the course of the year. As we look ahead to 2024, we share our thoughts on what could be next for markets.
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U.S. economic outlook: why we believe a recession is more likely than a soft landing
While the U.S. economy has recently shown signs that it may not tip into a recession anytime soon, we believe that we’ll see such an outcome eventually and that a much-hoped-for soft landing is unlikely. We explore the implications for portfolio management.
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Market outlook: equities have continued to shine, but macro challenges remain
Despite the challenging trading environment, equity markets globally managed to turn in a positive performance so far this year, particularly in the United States. Learn if that's likely to change in the coming months.
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Global economy: recession postponed, not canceled
The unexpected strength in the global economy—particularly in the United States—might have brought investors initial relief, but we believe it isn't enough to delay the inevitable. Find out why.
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Data, data, everywhere: Three-minute macro
Data is our word of the month. Despite some surprising signs of economic resilience in the United States, Manulife Investment Management's leading indicators still have us convinced a recession is on the way. Meanwhile, we don’t think the strong unemployment rate is a perfectly accurate description of the current (and future) labor market. Finally, the S&P 500 Index is looking strong so far this year, but we dive into how much of that performance is due to the artificial intelligence craze.
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Three themes shaping asset allocation in H2 2023
The global economy and financial markets proved to be more resilient than expected in the first half of the year. Should investors expect a repeat performance in H2 2023? One asset allocator shares his views.
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Beyond the Fed’s hawkish “pause”: three macro elements to consider
The U.S. Federal Reserve kept rates steady at its June meeting. But looking deeper, there are implications for investors.
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Looking past the debt ceiling: crisis averted, now what?
The U.S. debt ceiling may be behind us, but any sense of relief may turn out to be short-lived as other issues come to the fore. Read more.
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Will U.S. banking woes accelerate the shift to a fragmented global economy?
The creation of a dual-tier banking system in the United States could mark the beginning of the next phase of deglobalization. We examine its likely implications for the global economy.
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