Market outlook
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Weak jobs data could keep the Fed on hold until December
The surprising weakness in May's jobs report combined with the political uncertainty of the presidential election is likely to keep interest rates on hold until December.
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Credit for the next phase of the business cycle
When a variety of economic, political, and market factors give conflicting signals, it’s important to examine the business cycle’s deeper fundamentals—and their implications for investors.
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There will be no easy answers for the Fed at its June meeting
Weak GDP in the United States and global concerns should keep the Fed on hold at its next meeting. But don’t underestimate central bankers’ desire to normalize monetary policy.
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New spin for a new cycle
Investors love a good narrative, a story spinning together economic and financial market trends into a cohesive whole. After more than eight years of growth beating value, the narrative is changing.
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Negative yields, helicopter money-what will central banks try next?
One policy that could be employed is helicopter money—a kind of permanent quantitative easing that can take many forms, including tax rebates or electronic transfers into bank accounts.
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Monetary policy doves make a surprise appearance
The U.S. Federal Reserve softened its expectations for interest rates in its most recent release. That's good news for investors, but suggests the global risks to the U.S. economy are unlikely to dissipate anytime soon.
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Jobs figures improve, but wage growth loses steam
Despite the positive February jobs report, most gains were recorded in low-wage areas of the economy. We're still waiting for more significant income gains—and, in all likelihood, so is the Fed.
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Today's market character and the asset allocation implications
The character of our current asset markets can be described as a series of long, slow climbs in price followed by breathtaking downward smashes. Unfortunately, 2016 is likely to bring more of the same.
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Low oil and profits: the worst may be behind us
The falling price of oil is one of the most potent themes to emerge from our network of asset managers and researchers in recent months. While the near-term risks to equities outweigh potential rewards, the picture is not all bad.
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Saturation continuation: excess supply will shape markets in 2016
The main drivers of the global economy in 2015—an oversupply of debt, labor, and regulatory directives—will continue to shape the markets in 2016 and beyond.
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