Weekly Market Recap
Week ended April 11
Market-moving news
Rough road back
Rising and falling trade tensions buffeted the stock market again, and by the time it was over, the major U.S. indexes recorded big gains that nevertheless fell short of offsetting the previous week’s more sizable losses. The NASDAQ surged more than 7% for the week, the S&P 500 added almost 6%, and the Dow climbed about 5%.
Unsettled market
The back-and-forth of the week’s tariff-related news sent U.S. stocks and overseas markets on wild rides, producing big intraday swings. On Tuesday, the S&P 500 rose as much as 3.8% at one point before closing down 1.6%. The next day, the index surged 9.5%, recording its biggest daily gain since 2008.
Yields soar
Prices of U.S. government bonds tumbled, sending yields sharply higher, as volatility rippled across the fixed-income market and fueled anxiety that spread across asset classes. The yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rose from around 4.00% at the close of the previous week to 4.47% on Friday. Yields for longer-dated Treasuries posted similar gains, closing at 4.85%.
High anxiety
A measure of investors’ expectations of short-term U.S. stock market volatility surged on Monday and briefly reached the highest level in five years. Despite a series of big intraday swings throughout the week, the market eventually calmed, and the Cboe Volatility Index was down around 17% for the week.
S&P 500 bear averted
The S&P 500 almost entered a bear market on Tuesday, as its closing level left the index 19% below the record high that it had recorded on February 19; a decline of 20% or more would have marked a bear market. At Friday’s close, the S&P 500 finished the week 12.7% below its record level.
Gold record
The price of gold climbed for the fifth week out of the past six, extending a year-to-date surge that pushed the precious metal’s price above the $3,200-per-ounce level for the first time. On Friday afternoon, gold was trading around $3,250, up 7% for the week and 22% year to date.
CPI improvement
Amid concern that higher tariffs could fuel inflationary pressures in coming months, the government’s Consumer Price Index fell to the lowest level in four years. Inflation posted a 2.4% annual rate in March, down from 2.8% in February. On a month-over-month basis, prices declined 0.1%—the first such monthly decline since May 2020.
Solid earnings
As major U.S. banks opened quarterly earnings season on Friday, analysts were forecasting that first-quarter earnings for all companies in the S&P 500 rose by an average of 7.3% overall, according to FactSet. If results remain positive by the time earnings season concludes, it would mark the seventh consecutive quarter of year-over-year earnings growth.
The week ahead: April 14-18
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Investment returns
Equities
U.S. equity size and style total returns as of 4/11/25 (%)
1 week
| 3.4 | 5.6 | 7.6 | Large | |
| 2.7 | 3.6 | 6.4 | Medium | |
| 0.3 | 1.8 | 3.3 | Small | |
| Value | Core | Growth | ||
YTD
| -4.3 | -8.8 | -12.5 | Large | |
| -8.9 | -9.5 | -11.0 | Medium | |
| -16.0 | -16.3 | -16.5 | Small | |
| Value | Core | Growth | ||
Index/market total returns as of 4/11/25 (%)
| Close | 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 40,212.7 | 5.0 | -5.0 |
| NASDAQ Composite Index | 16,724.5 | 7.3 | -13.2 |
| S&P 500 Index | 5,363.4 | 5.7 | -8.5 |
| MSCI EAFE Index | 2,297.7 | 0.8 | 2.6 |
| Cboe Volatility Index | 37.6 | -17.0 | 116.1 |
International/developed (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EAFE | 0.8 | 2.6 |
| Europe | 1.3 | 6.0 |
| France | 1.0 | 6.0 |
| Germany | 2.3 | 12.4 |
| Italy | 1.0 | 10.4 |
| Japan | 0.3 | -3.4 |
| Spain | 2.4 | 20.5 |
| Switzerland | 1.8 | 8.9 |
| U.K. | -0.3 | 3.0 |
Emerging markets (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM | -3.8 | -2.1 |
| Brazil | -0.4 | 8.7 |
| China | -7.8 | 4.5 |
| India | -1.2 | -6.2 |
| Indonesia | -4.4 | -15.0 |
| Korea | -3.1 | 3.5 |
| Mexico | 0.7 | 7.3 |
| Russia | #N/A | #N/A |
| Taiwan | -5.7 | -14.9 |
S&P 500 sectors (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 Index | 5.7 | -8.5 |
| Communication services | 6.5 | -8.7 |
| Consumer discretionary | 4.6 | -16.9 |
| Consumer staples | 3.1 | 4.4 |
| Energy | -0.4 | -6.7 |
| Financials | 5.6 | -3.0 |
| Healthcare | 1.2 | 0.0 |
| Industrials | 6.5 | -4.3 |
| Information tech | 9.7 | -15.1 |
| Materials | 3.6 | -3.3 |
| Real estate | -0.2 | -3.7 |
| Utilities | 2.4 | 1.6 |
Fixed income, currencies, and commodities
U.S. fixed-income style total returns as of 4/11/25 (%)
1 week
| -0.2 | -1.4 | -6.2 | High | Credit quality |
| -0.5 | -1.9 | -4.9 | Medium | |
| -0.2 | -0.5 | -2.7 | Low | |
| Limited | Moderate | Extensive | ||
| Interest-rate sensitivity | ||||
YTD
| 1.3 | 1.9 | 0.4 | High | Credit quality |
| 1.6 | 1.5 | -2.6 | Medium | |
| 0.0 | -1.5 | -4.4 | Low | |
| Limited | Moderate | Extensive | ||
| Interest-rate sensitivity | ||||
U.S. Treasury bond yields as of 4/11/25 (%)
| END OF WEEK | PRIOR YEAR END | YTD CHANGE (BPS) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Yr | 3.96 | 4.23 | -27 |
| 10 Yr | 4.47 | 4.57 | -10 |
| 30 Yr | 4.85 | 4.79 | 6 |
| 2-10 spread | 51 | 34 | 17 |
| 10-30 spread | 38 | 22 | 16 |
U.S. bond sector total returns (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| Aggregate | -2.5 | 1.1 |
| Bank loans | 0.3 | -0.8 |
| Convertible | 1.1 | -4.4 |
| Corporate | -3.0 | -0.1 |
| High yield | -0.5 | -1.5 |
| MBS | -2.7 | 1.3 |
| Municipal | -4.0 | -2.8 |
| Preferreds | -2.7 | -4.0 |
| TIPS | -2.5 | 1.9 |
| Treasury | -2.4 | 1.6 |
Global bond total returns (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM Local | 0.6 | 6.3 |
| EMD USD | -2.7 | -1.3 |
| Global Agg | -0.4 | 3.8 |
| Global Agg Ex-U.S. | 0.9 | 5.5 |
| Multiverse | -0.4 | 3.6 |
Commodities (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| BBG Com Ind | 1.9 | 4.0 |
| Oil (WTI) | -1.1 | -12.4 |
| Gold | 7.0 | 21.9 |
Currencies (USD) (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM FX | -0.2 | 2.5 |
| AUD | 2.9 | 0.7 |
| CAD | 2.4 | 3.5 |
| CHF | 5.1 | 11.2 |
| EUR | 3.2 | 9.5 |
| GBP | 0.9 | 4.3 |
| JPY | 1.4 | 9.5 |
GDP
Jobs
Inflation
Ex-U.S.
Regions/countries
| GDP Growth (%) annualized | Inflation Rate (%) CPI | Unemployment Rate (%) | 10-Year Government Bond (%) | Sovereign Credit Rating | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eurozone | 1.2 | 2.2 | 6.1 | _ | _ |
| China | 5.4 | -0.1 | 5.4 | 1.65 | A+ |
| Germany | -0.2 | 2.2 | 6.3 | 2.53 | AAA |
| Japan | 1.2 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.35 | A+ |
| U.K. | 1.5 | 2.8 | 4.4 | 4.77 | AA |
Fund industry overview
Total net flows: open-end funds and ETFs as of 3/31/25 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Equity | -2.1 | 155.4 | 15,191.8 |
| Sector Equity | -13.0 | -25.1 | 1,359.6 |
| Allocation | -8.4 | -80.7 | 1,392.3 |
| International Equity | -3.1 | -15.5 | 4,244.4 |
| Alternative | 0.5 | 44.3 | 272.6 |
| Commodities | 6.8 | 17.6 | 227.5 |
| Taxable Bond | 20.3 | 469.4 | 5,934.4 |
| Municipal Bond | -0.6 | 45.6 | 928.6 |
| Total all long-term funds | 10.3 | 634.6 | 29,865.7 |
Leading Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows as of 3/31/25 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ultrashort Bond | 14.5 | 95.9 | 433.5 |
| Large Blend | 9.4 | 244.9 | 8,059.7 |
| Intermediate Core-Plus Bond | 8.8 | 47.4 | 852.3 |
| Trading--Leveraged Equity | 6.9 | 11.4 | 87.9 |
| Commodities Focused | 6.5 | 16.8 | 182.2 |
Lagging Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows as of 3/31/25 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Intermediate Government | -9.0 | 10.9 | 276.7 |
| Bank Loan | -5.4 | 7.9 | 105.4 |
| Large Growth | -5.4 | -37.0 | 2,834.8 |
| Moderate Allocation | -5.2 | -36.5 | 782.9 |
| Foreign Large Growth | -3.8 | -29.8 | 456.5 |
Important disclosures
Unless otherwise noted, all data is from FactSet.
The data provided is for informational purposes only and is not an endorsement of any security, mutual fund, sector, or index. This does not illustrate the performance of any John Hancock fund. The information contained here is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. All economic and performance information is historical and does not guarantee future results.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index comprising 30 widely traded blue chip U.S. common stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value-weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The S&P 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. The MSCI Europe, Australasia, and Far East (EAFE) Index tracks the performance of publicly traded large- and mid-cap stocks of companies in those regions. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) shows the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility and is constructed using the implied volatilities of a wide range of S&P 500 Index options. Weekly and year-to-date figures for the VIX show percentage changes, not investment returns. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.
The Treasury yield curve is derived from available U.S. Treasury securities trading in the market and is provided directly by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The spread measures the difference in yield between two government securities. A normal (positive) yield curve occurs when longer-term rates are higher than shorter-term rates. The opposite holds true for an inverted yield curve. Year-to-date changes in U.S. Treasury bond yields are shown in basis points (BPS). One hundred basis points equals one percent.
Oil prices are represented by West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil.
The G20 countries comprise a mix of the world’s largest advanced and emerging economies, representing about two-thirds of the world’s population, 85% of global gross domestic product, and over 75% of global trade.
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