Weekly Market Recap
Week ended January 10
Market-moving news
Modest retreat
The major U.S. stock indexes fell around 2%, recording their second weekly declines in a row as investors worried about a potential slowdown in the pace of interest-rate cuts. It was the fourth negative week out of five for the S&P 500, which finished down more than 4% from a record high set on December 6.
Spiking yields
In the wake of Friday’s stronger-than-expected jobs report, the yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury note surged to the highest level in more than 14 months, climbing as high as 4.79% on Friday morning before closing around 4.77%. The recent spike reflects growing market expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve may only approve a single rate cut this year.
Jobs strength
The U.S. labor market remains resilient, as December’s jobs gain of 256,000 was roughly 100,000 more than most economists had expected. The result capped a year that generated an average monthly gain of 186,000 jobs. December’s unemployment rate slipped to 4.1% from 4.2% the previous month.
Earnings outlook
As major banks prepare to open quarterly earnings season, analysts on Friday expected that fourth-quarter earnings per share for all companies in the S&P 500 rose by an average of 11.7%, according to FactSet. The firm reported that 71 companies recently scaled back their earnings expectations versus 35 that issued positive guidance.
Oil and gold gains
The price of U.S. crude oil rose for the third week in a row, climbing to nearly $77 on Friday. Over that three-week stretch, the price was up more than 10%. Gold futures rose for the second week in a row, reaching around $2,717—less than 3% shy of the record level reached two and a half months ago.
U.K. yield surge
Yields of the United Kingdom’s debt jumped to their highest levels in decades amid worries about government borrowing and economic weakness. On Thursday, the yield on the 30-year gilt hit more than 5.45%, the highest since 1998. The yield of the 10-year gilt reached 4.92%, the highest since 2008.
Dividend increases
Dividend payments by companies in the S&P 500 rose in 2024. The net indicated dividend rate—dividend increases announced by companies minus decreases—rose to $53.3 billion from $36.5 billion in 2023, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices. The firm’s annual forecast projects an 8% increase in overall dividend payments this year relative to 2024.
CPI ahead
A Consumer Price Index report scheduled for release on Wednesday will show whether a recent trend of slightly hotter-than-expected inflation extended into December. Last month’s CPI report showed an annual rate of 2.7% in November, up from 2.6% the previous month—a further indication of recently uneven progress in bringing inflation closer to the Fed’s 2.0% long-term target.
The week ahead: January 13-17
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Investment returns
Equities
U.S. equity size and style total returns as of 1/10/25 (%)
1 week
| -1.5 | -1.9 | -2.2 | Large | |
| -2.0 | -2.0 | -2.2 | Medium | |
| -3.6 | -3.5 | -3.3 | Small | |
| Value | Core | Growth | ||
YTD
| -0.8 | -0.8 | -0.8 | Large | |
| -1.2 | -0.8 | 0.3 | Medium | |
| -2.7 | -1.8 | -1.0 | Small | |
| Value | Core | Growth | ||
Index/market total returns as of 1/10/25 (%)
| Close | 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 41,938.5 | -1.8 | -1.4 |
| NASDAQ Composite Index | 19,161.6 | -2.3 | -0.8 |
| S&P 500 Index | 5,827.0 | -1.9 | -0.9 |
| MSCI EAFE Index | 2,244.9 | -0.4 | -0.7 |
| Cboe Volatility Index | 19.5 | 21.1 | 12.1 |
International/developed (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EAFE | -0.4 | -0.7 |
| Europe | 0.4 | -0.1 |
| France | 1.5 | -0.3 |
| Germany | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| Italy | 2.4 | 1.7 |
| Japan | -2.6 | -2.8 |
| Spain | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| Switzerland | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| U.K. | -1.1 | -1.4 |
Emerging markets (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM | -1.5 | -1.6 |
| Brazil | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| China | -4.4 | -6.2 |
| India | -3.8 | -2.3 |
| Indonesia | -2.1 | -1.2 |
| Korea | 3.5 | 5.9 |
| Mexico | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| Russia | #N/A | #N/A |
| Taiwan | 0.9 | 0.2 |
S&P 500 sectors (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 Index | -1.9 | -0.9 |
| Communication services | -0.6 | 0.9 |
| Consumer discretionary | -2.3 | -1.2 |
| Consumer staples | -1.9 | -2.2 |
| Energy | 0.9 | 2.9 |
| Financials | -2.6 | -2.0 |
| Healthcare | 0.5 | 1.6 |
| Industrials | -1.0 | -0.3 |
| Information tech | -3.1 | -1.7 |
| Materials | 0.1 | -0.9 |
| Real estate | -4.0 | -3.7 |
| Utilities | -1.9 | -0.1 |
Fixed income, currencies, and commodities
U.S. fixed-income style total returns as of 1/10/25 (%)
1 week
| 0.0 | -0.5 | -2.0 | High | Credit quality |
| -0.1 | -0.7 | -1.7 | Medium | |
| -0.1 | -0.3 | -0.1 | Low | |
| Limited | Moderate | Extensive | ||
| Interest-rate sensitivity | ||||
YTD
| 0.0 | -0.5 | -2.3 | High | Credit quality |
| -0.1 | -0.8 | -2.0 | Medium | |
| 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 | Low | |
| Limited | Moderate | Extensive | ||
| Interest-rate sensitivity | ||||
U.S. Treasury bond yields as of 1/10/25 (%)
| END OF WEEK | PRIOR YEAR END | YTD CHANGE (BPS) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Yr | 4.38 | 4.23 | 15 |
| 10 Yr | 4.77 | 4.57 | 20 |
| 30 Yr | 4.96 | 4.79 | 17 |
| 2-10 spread | 38 | 34 | 5 |
| 10-30 spread | 19 | 22 | -3 |
U.S. bond sector total returns (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| Aggregate | -0.9 | -1.0 |
| Bank loans | 0.2 | 0.3 |
| Convertible | -1.5 | -0.1 |
| Corporate | -1.1 | -1.2 |
| High yield | -0.3 | 0.0 |
| MBS | -1.1 | -1.2 |
| Municipal | -0.9 | -0.7 |
| Preferreds | -3.5 | -1.1 |
| TIPS | -0.3 | -0.5 |
| Treasury | -0.8 | -0.9 |
Global bond total returns (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM Local | -0.5 | -0.4 |
| EMD USD | -0.7 | -0.4 |
| Global Agg | -1.0 | -1.3 |
| Global Agg Ex-U.S. | -1.0 | -1.5 |
| Multiverse | -0.9 | -1.3 |
Commodities (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| BBG Com Ind | 4.1 | 3.9 |
| Oil (WTI) | 3.6 | 6.4 |
| Gold | 2.4 | 2.9 |
Currencies (USD) (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM FX | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| AUD | -0.8 | -0.6 |
| CAD | 0.1 | -0.3 |
| CHF | -0.6 | -1.1 |
| EUR | -0.4 | -1.0 |
| GBP | -1.4 | -2.4 |
| JPY | -0.1 | -0.3 |
GDP
Jobs
Inflation
Ex-U.S.
Regions/countries
| GDP Growth (%) annualized | Inflation Rate (%) CPI | Unemployment Rate (%) | 10-Year Government Bond (%) | Sovereign Credit Rating | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eurozone | 0.9 | 2.4 | 6.3 | _ | _ |
| China | 4.6 | 0.1 | 5.0 | 1.64 | A+ |
| Germany | -0.3 | 2.6 | 6.1 | 2.57 | AAA |
| Japan | 0.5 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.21 | A+ |
| U.K. | 0.9 | 2.6 | 4.3 | 4.84 | AA |
Fund industry overview
Total net flows: open-end funds and ETFs as of 11/30/24 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Equity | 52.6 | 144.9 | 16,482.8 |
| Sector Equity | 10.8 | -7.2 | 1,488.5 |
| Allocation | -5.9 | -83.6 | 1,444.4 |
| International Equity | 1.5 | 9.3 | 4,224.8 |
| Alternative | 7.4 | 39.3 | 286.2 |
| Commodities | -0.5 | 2.1 | 189.3 |
| Taxable Bond | 36.9 | 482.5 | 5,767.4 |
| Municipal Bond | 5.9 | 47.7 | 933.8 |
| Total all long-term funds | 115.5 | 644.0 | 31,145.3 |
Leading Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows as of 11/30/24 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Large Blend | 33.7 | 232.7 | 8,558.2 |
| Intermediate Core Bond | 13.0 | 137.3 | 1,446.6 |
| Foreign Large Blend | 12.3 | 61.2 | 1,659.2 |
| Small Blend | 8.9 | 25.4 | 689.6 |
| Financial | 7.6 | 10.7 | 106.7 |
Lagging Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows as of 11/30/24 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Long Government | -5.1 | 25.7 | 180.2 |
| China Region | -4.6 | 2.3 | 33.1 |
| Health | -3.5 | -22.0 | 209.9 |
| Global Allocation | -2.9 | -23.9 | 268.6 |
| Mid-Cap Value | -2.7 | -23.8 | 374.9 |
Important disclosures
Unless otherwise noted, all data is from FactSet.
The data provided is for informational purposes only and is not an endorsement of any security, mutual fund, sector, or index. This does not illustrate the performance of any John Hancock fund. The information contained here is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. All economic and performance information is historical and does not guarantee future results.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index comprising 30 widely traded blue chip U.S. common stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value-weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The S&P 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. The MSCI Europe, Australasia, and Far East (EAFE) Index tracks the performance of publicly traded large- and mid-cap stocks of companies in those regions. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) shows the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility and is constructed using the implied volatilities of a wide range of S&P 500 Index options. Weekly and year-to-date figures for the VIX show percentage changes, not investment returns. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.
The Treasury yield curve is derived from available U.S. Treasury securities trading in the market and is provided directly by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The spread measures the difference in yield between two government securities. A normal (positive) yield curve occurs when longer-term rates are higher than shorter-term rates. The opposite holds true for an inverted yield curve. Year-to-date changes in U.S. Treasury bond yields are shown in basis points (BPS). One hundred basis points equals one percent.
Oil prices are represented by West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil.
The G20 countries comprise a mix of the world’s largest advanced and emerging economies, representing about two-thirds of the world’s population, 85% of global gross domestic product, and over 75% of global trade.
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