Weekly Market Recap
Week ended June 28
Market-moving news
Modest moves
The S&P 500 posted a tiny weekly decline while the NASDAQ rose slightly as both indexes remained near record-high levels in a quiet week of trading. The Dow slipped, remaining about 2% below the record that it set six weeks earlier.
Inflation eases
The U.S. Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge moved closer to the Fed’s long-term inflation target of around 2.0%. Excluding energy and food prices, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures Index rose at an annual rate of 2.6% in May, marking the slowest price growth in more than three years.
Top-heavy market
The first half of 2024 produced lopsided results across the U.S. equity market. Through June 26, a single information technology sector stock contributed around 30% of the overall total return of the S&P 500, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices. In addition, just five tech-oriented stocks accounted for more than half of the index’s year-to-date total return.
June’s positive results
The S&P 500’s monthly advance totaled 3.5% as the index posted its seventh positive month out of the past eight. The NASDAQ outperformed its peers with a nearly 6.0% gain in June while the Dow lagged with a rise of 1.1%.
Yen’s weakness
The value of Japan’s currency relative to the U.S. dollar fell on Friday to its lowest level since 1986. The yen has been steadily depreciating since the Bank of Japan ended its negative interest-rate policy and scrapped its yield curve control policy in March 2024.
Market calm
At midyear 2024, an index that measures investors’ expectations of short-term U.S. stock market volatility was slightly below its year-end 2023 level and down 35% from its year-to-date high reached on April 15. With the exception of April, there have been few big movements in the Cboe Volatility Index, which has generally remained below its historical average.
Q2 earnings expectations
Expectations are positive heading into earnings season, which opens in mid-July as major banks begin reporting second-quarter results. As of June 21, analysts surveyed by FactSet were expecting companies in the S&P 500 to post an average earnings increase of 8.8% compared with the same period a year earlier—potentially the fourth consecutive quarter of year-over-year earnings growth.
Jobs ahead
A monthly labor market report due out on Friday will show whether May’s acceleration in jobs growth was an anomaly or the start of a trend. In May, the economy generated a better-than-expected 272,000 jobs, up from the 165,000 jobs added in April. May’s wage growth also exceeded expectations.
The week ahead: July 1-5
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Important disclosures
Unless otherwise noted, all data is from FactSet.
The data provided is for informational purposes only and is not an endorsement of any security, mutual fund, sector, or index. This does not illustrate the performance of any John Hancock fund. The information contained here is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. All economic and performance information is historical and does not guarantee future results.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index comprising 30 widely traded blue chip U.S. common stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value-weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The S&P 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. The MSCI Europe, Australasia, and Far East (EAFE) Index tracks the performance of publicly traded large- and mid-cap stocks of companies in those regions. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) shows the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility and is constructed using the implied volatilities of a wide range of S&P 500 Index options. Weekly and year-to-date figures for the VIX show percentage changes, not investment returns. The Russell 2000 Index tracks the performance of approximately 2,000 publicly traded small-cap companies in the United States. The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index (Agg) tracks the performance of U.S. investment-grade bonds in government, asset-backed, and corporate debt markets. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.
The Treasury yield curve is derived from available U.S. Treasury securities trading in the market and is provided directly by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The spread measures the difference in yield between two government securities. A normal (positive) yield curve occurs when longer-term rates are higher than shorter-term rates. The opposite holds true for an inverted yield curve. Year-to-date changes in U.S. Treasury bond yields are shown in basis points (BPS). One hundred basis points equals one percent.
Oil prices are represented by West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil.
The G20 countries comprise a mix of the world’s largest advanced and emerging economies, representing about two-thirds of the world’s population, 85% of global gross domestic product, and over 75% of global trade.
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Investment returns
Equities
U.S. equity size and style total returns as of 6/28/24 (%)
1 week
| -0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | Large | |
| -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.2 | Medium | |
| 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.9 | Small | |
| Value | Core | Growth | ||
YTD
| 6.6 | 14.2 | 20.7 | Large | |
| 4.5 | 5.0 | 6.0 | Medium | |
| -0.8 | 1.7 | 4.4 | Small | |
| Value | Core | Growth | ||
Index/market total returns as of 6/28/24 (%)
| Close | 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 39,118.9 | -0.1 | 4.8 |
| NASDAQ Composite Index | 17,732.6 | 0.3 | 18.6 |
| S&P 500 Index | 5,460.5 | -0.1 | 15.3 |
| MSCI EAFE Index | 2,314.6 | 0.4 | 5.7 |
| Cboe Volatility Index | 12.4 | -6.1 | -0.8 |
International/developed (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EAFE | 0.4 | 5.7 |
| Europe | -0.4 | 6.4 |
| France | -1.7 | -1.4 |
| Germany | 1.6 | 6.3 |
| Italy | 0.1 | 10.8 |
| Japan | 2.6 | 6.5 |
| Spain | -0.1 | 6.8 |
| Switzerland | -0.9 | 2.7 |
| U.K. | -0.8 | 6.9 |
Emerging markets (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM | 0.1 | 7.7 |
| Brazil | 0.4 | -18.6 |
| China | -2.0 | 4.8 |
| India | 2.0 | 17.1 |
| Indonesia | 3.2 | -9.8 |
| Korea | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| Mexico | -0.1 | -15.5 |
| Russia | #N/A | #N/A |
| Taiwan | -1.1 | 29.6 |
S&P 500 sectors (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 Index | -0.1 | 15.3 |
| Communication services | 1.3 | 26.7 |
| Consumer discretionary | 0.5 | 5.7 |
| Consumer staples | -0.6 | 9.0 |
| Energy | 2.7 | 10.9 |
| Financials | -0.2 | 10.2 |
| Healthcare | -0.3 | 7.8 |
| Industrials | -0.6 | 7.8 |
| Information tech | -0.4 | 28.2 |
| Materials | -1.1 | 4.0 |
| Real estate | 0.9 | -1.9 |
| Utilities | -1.0 | 9.4 |
Fixed income, currencies, and commodities
U.S. fixed-income style total returns as of 6/28/24 (%)
1 week
| 0.1 | -0.2 | -2.0 | High | Credit quality |
| 0.0 | -0.4 | -1.5 | Medium | |
| 0.2 | 0.0 | -1.2 | Low | |
| Limited | Moderate | Extensive | ||
| Interest-rate sensitivity | ||||
YTD
| 1.9 | 0.2 | -5.0 | High | Credit quality |
| 1.3 | 0.0 | -2.6 | Medium | |
| 3.3 | 2.6 | -1.0 | Low | |
| Limited | Moderate | Extensive | ||
| Interest-rate sensitivity | ||||
U.S. Treasury bond yields as of 6/28/24 (%)
| END OF WEEK | PRIOR YEAR END | YTD CHANGE (BPS) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Yr | 4.72 | 4.25 | 47 |
| 10 Yr | 4.37 | 3.88 | 49 |
| 30 Yr | 4.54 | 4.03 | 51 |
| 2-10 spread | -35 | -37 | 2 |
| 10-30 spread | 17 | 16 | 1 |
U.S. bond sector total returns (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| Aggregate | -0.6 | -0.7 |
| Bank loans | 0.1 | 3.6 |
| Convertible | 0.7 | 1.9 |
| Corporate | -0.5 | 0.0 |
| High yield | 0.0 | 2.6 |
| MBS | -0.9 | -1.0 |
| Municipal | -0.2 | -0.4 |
| Preferreds | 0.1 | 1.1 |
| TIPS | -0.2 | 0.7 |
| Treasury | -0.5 | -0.9 |
Global bond total returns (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM Local | -0.1 | -2.8 |
| EMD USD | -0.4 | 2.3 |
| Global Agg | -0.4 | -3.2 |
| Global Agg Ex-U.S. | -0.3 | -4.7 |
| Multiverse | -0.4 | -3.0 |
Commodities (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| BBG Com Ind | -0.6 | 5.1 |
| Oil (WTI) | 1.0 | 19.1 |
| Gold | 0.5 | 12.7 |
Currencies (USD) (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM FX | -0.4 | -1.9 |
| AUD | 0.6 | -2.1 |
| CAD | 0.1 | -3.6 |
| CHF | -0.6 | -6.3 |
| EUR | 0.3 | -3.0 |
| GBP | 0.1 | -0.8 |
| JPY | -0.8 | -12.4 |
GDP
Jobs
Inflation
Ex-U.S.
Regions/countries
| GDP Growth (%) annualized | Inflation Rate (%) CPI | Unemployment Rate (%) | 10-Year Government Bond (%) | Sovereign Credit Rating | |
| Eurozone | 0.4 | 2.6 | 6.4 | _ | _ |
| China | 5.3 | 0.3 | 5.0 | 2.21 | A+ |
| Germany | -0.2 | 2.4 | 6.0 | 2.49 | AAA |
| Japan | -0.2 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 1.05 | A+ |
| U.K. | 0.3 | 2.0 | 4.4 | 4.18 | AA |
Fund industry overview
Total net flows: open-end funds and ETFs as of 5/31/24 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
| U.S. Equity | 34.7 | 81.2 | 14,369.4 |
| Sector Equity | -2.3 | -40.3 | 1,325.8 |
| Allocation | -7.4 | -86.5 | 1,355.8 |
| International Equity | 1.8 | -1.8 | 4,138.0 |
| Alternative | 3.8 | 20.4 | 246.8 |
| Commodities | 0.4 | -15.9 | 172.3 |
| Taxable Bond | 35.8 | 317.5 | 5,311.7 |
| Municipal Bond | 1.8 | 3.6 | 867.3 |
| Total all long-term funds | 64.6 | 257.1 | 28,016.7 |
Leading Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows as of 5/31/24 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
| Large Blend | 32.3 | 199.1 | 7,401.3 |
| Large Growth | 8.5 | -35.0 | 2,798.0 |
| Intermediate Core Bond | 8.2 | 134.5 | 1,334.7 |
| High Yield Bond | 5.9 | 20.0 | 336.5 |
| Ultrashort Bond | 5.2 | 24.8 | 341.2 |
Lagging Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows as of 5/31/24 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
| Trading-Leveraged Equity | -3.5 | -9.8 | 89.2 |
| Mid-Cap Growth | -3.0 | -24.5 | 364.4 |
| Moderate Allocation | -2.5 | -28.5 | 748.6 |
| Health | -2.2 | -25.3 | 211.1 |
| Mid-Cap Value | -2.1 | -23.0 | 337.1 |
Important disclosures
Unless otherwise noted, all data is from FactSet.
The data provided is for informational purposes only and is not an endorsement of any security, mutual fund, sector, or index. This does not illustrate the performance of any John Hancock fund. The information contained here is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. All economic and performance information is historical and does not guarantee future results.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index comprising 30 widely traded blue chip U.S. common stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value-weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The S&P 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. The MSCI Europe, Australasia, and Far East (EAFE) Index tracks the performance of publicly traded large- and mid-cap stocks of companies in those regions. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) shows the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility and is constructed using the implied volatilities of a wide range of S&P 500 Index options. Weekly and year-to-date figures for the VIX show percentage changes, not investment returns. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.
The Treasury yield curve is derived from available U.S. Treasury securities trading in the market and is provided directly by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The spread measures the difference in yield between two government securities. A normal (positive) yield curve occurs when longer-term rates are higher than shorter-term rates. The opposite holds true for an inverted yield curve. Year-to-date changes in U.S. Treasury bond yields are shown in basis points (BPS). One hundred basis points equals one percent.
Oil prices are represented by West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil.
The G20 countries comprise a mix of the world’s largest advanced and emerging economies, representing about two-thirds of the world’s population, 85% of global gross domestic product, and over 75% of global trade.
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