Weekly Market Recap
Week ended March 7
Market-moving news
Slippery slope
Trade tensions weighed on the market as the S&P 500 fell for the third week in a row and posted its steepest weekly decline since last September. The index recorded a -3.1% total return, faring slightly better than the NASDAQ's -3.4% result, while the Dow fell 2.3%.
NASDAQ correction
The NASDAQ entered a correction on Thursday, as sharp declines for many of its technology stocks left the index more than 10% below a high reached a couple weeks earlier as well as its record level set nearly three months ago. While the S&P 500 and Dow were also down sharply from their recent peaks, those indexes didn’t fall below the 10% correction threshold.
Tariff tumult
Trade conflicts buffeted financial markets, as the United States imposed 25% tariffs on most goods from Canada and Mexico on Tuesday while also boosting existing duties on Chinese imports. The three key U.S. trading partners then retaliated with their own tariffs, leading U.S. officials to pull back duties on some Canadian and Mexican goods for a month, including automobiles.
Jobs moderation
February’s gain of 151,000 jobs came in slightly below most analysts’ expectations but marked a modest increase from the previous month’s adjusted figure of 125,000. Nevertheless, growth has recently been moderating overall, as monthly jobs gains averaged 168,000 over the past 12 months.
Dollar depreciation
A measure of the U.S. dollar’s value relative to a basket of other major currencies was down 2.4% for the week as of Friday afternoon—the dollar’s biggest weekly decline since November 2022. In contrast, the euro was posting its biggest weekly gain versus the dollar since 2009 after European governments announced plans for increased stimulus spending.
Equity style rotation
An index of U.S. large-cap growth stocks lagged its value counterpart by a wide margin, extending the value equity style’s year-to-date comeback following growth’s market leadership in 2024. The growth index closed down 3.9% for the week on a total return basis while a value index fell 2.4%.
Europe cuts again
European stocks climbed on Thursday after the European Central Bank approved a rate cut for its sixth policy meeting in a row. The move came in response to recently weak European economic growth and rising geopolitical tensions, which have prompted plans to increase spending on infrastructure and defense.
CPI ahead
A Consumer Price Index report scheduled for release on Wednesday will show whether a recent trend of slightly hotter-than-expected inflation extended into February. The most recent CPI report showed an annual core inflation rate of 3.3% in January, excluding volatile energy and food prices. That result was above economists’ consensus forecast and slightly above the previous month’s annual figure.
The week ahead: March 10-14
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Investment returns
Equities
U.S. equity size and style total returns as of 3/7/25 (%)
1 week
| -2.4 | -3.2 | -3.9 | Large | |
| -2.5 | -3.0 | -4.4 | Medium | |
| -3.5 | -4.0 | -4.5 | Small | |
| Value | Core | Growth | ||
YTD
| 2.5 | -1.9 | -5.6 | Large | |
| -1.0 | -1.8 | -4.0 | Medium | |
| -5.3 | -6.8 | -8.2 | Small | |
| Value | Core | Growth | ||
Index/market total returns as of 3/7/25 (%)
| Close | 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 42,801.7 | -2.3 | 0.9 |
| NASDAQ Composite Index | 18,196.2 | -3.4 | -5.7 |
| S&P 500 Index | 5,770.2 | -3.1 | -1.7 |
| MSCI EAFE Index | 2,495.7 | 3.1 | 10.7 |
| Cboe Volatility Index | 23.4 | 19.4 | 34.5 |
International/developed (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EAFE | 3.1 | 10.7 |
| Europe | 3.7 | 14.9 |
| France | 4.8 | 15.6 |
| Germany | 6.5 | 21.1 |
| Italy | 4.1 | 19.1 |
| Japan | 2.8 | 3.0 |
| Spain | 4.0 | 23.2 |
| Switzerland | 3.2 | 15.5 |
| U.K. | 1.6 | 10.6 |
Emerging markets (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM | 2.9 | 5.3 |
| Brazil | 3.0 | 10.4 |
| China | 6.6 | 20.2 |
| India | 3.2 | -8.4 |
| Indonesia | 9.1 | -9.1 |
| Korea | 2.0 | 8.2 |
| Mexico | 2.6 | 9.9 |
| Russia | #N/A | #N/A |
| Taiwan | -2.5 | -3.7 |
S&P 500 sectors (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 Index | -3.1 | -1.7 |
| Communication services | -2.0 | 0.3 |
| Consumer discretionary | -5.4 | -10.4 |
| Consumer staples | -1.4 | 6.4 |
| Energy | -3.7 | 2.2 |
| Financials | -5.9 | 1.7 |
| Healthcare | 0.2 | 8.6 |
| Industrials | -1.5 | 1.9 |
| Information tech | -3.4 | -7.4 |
| Materials | -1.1 | 4.4 |
| Real estate | -1.5 | 4.4 |
| Utilities | -2.4 | 2.2 |
Fixed income, currencies, and commodities
U.S. fixed-income style total returns as of 3/7/25 (%)
1 week
| 0.1 | -0.2 | -2.0 | High | Credit quality |
| 0.0 | -0.3 | -1.5 | Medium | |
| -0.1 | -0.3 | 0.5 | Low | |
| Limited | Moderate | Extensive | ||
| Interest-rate sensitivity | ||||
YTD
| 0.9 | 1.8 | 3.5 | High | Credit quality |
| 1.2 | 2.0 | 2.3 | Medium | |
| 1.8 | 1.7 | 2.7 | Low | |
| Limited | Moderate | Extensive | ||
| Interest-rate sensitivity | ||||
U.S. Treasury bond yields as of 3/7/25 (%)
| END OF WEEK | PRIOR YEAR END | YTD CHANGE (BPS) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Yr | 4.00 | 4.23 | -23 |
| 10 Yr | 4.32 | 4.57 | -25 |
| 30 Yr | 4.61 | 4.79 | -18 |
| 2-10 spread | 32 | 34 | -2 |
| 10-30 spread | 30 | 22 | 8 |
U.S. bond sector total returns (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| Aggregate | -0.6 | 2.1 |
| Bank loans | -0.1 | 0.6 |
| Convertible | -1.8 | -0.4 |
| Corporate | -0.6 | 2.1 |
| High yield | -0.3 | 1.7 |
| MBS | -0.6 | 2.4 |
| Municipal | -0.5 | 1.0 |
| Preferreds | -1.1 | 1.1 |
| TIPS | -0.9 | 2.6 |
| Treasury | -0.6 | 2.1 |
Global bond total returns (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM Local | 2.3 | 6.0 |
| EMD USD | -0.3 | 2.7 |
| Global Agg | 0.5 | 2.5 |
| Global Agg Ex-U.S. | 1.2 | 2.8 |
| Multiverse | 0.5 | 2.6 |
Commodities (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| BBG Com Ind | 2.1 | 6.9 |
| Oil (WTI) | -3.7 | -4.9 |
| Gold | 2.4 | 10.1 |
Currencies (USD) (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM FX | 1.5 | 4.2 |
| AUD | 1.5 | 2.0 |
| CAD | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| CHF | 2.7 | 3.1 |
| EUR | 4.5 | 5.0 |
| GBP | 2.6 | 3.2 |
| JPY | 2.2 | 6.6 |
GDP
Jobs
Inflation
Ex-U.S.
Regions/countries
| GDP Growth (%) annualized | Inflation Rate (%) CPI | Unemployment Rate (%) | 10-Year Government Bond (%) | Sovereign Credit Rating | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eurozone | 1.2 | 2.4 | 6.2 | _ | _ |
| China | 5.4 | 0.5 | 5.1 | 1.75 | A+ |
| Germany | -0.2 | 2.3 | 6.2 | 2.84 | AAA |
| Japan | 1.2 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.52 | A+ |
| U.K. | 1.4 | 3.0 | 4.4 | 4.60 | AA |
Fund industry overview
Total net flows: open-end funds and ETFs as of 1/31/25 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Equity | 1.8 | 172.4 | 16,445.0 |
| Sector Equity | 6.2 | -4.3 | 1,455.6 |
| Allocation | -6.3 | -79.9 | 1,428.6 |
| International Equity | -7.8 | -1.3 | 4,232.4 |
| Alternative | 8.7 | 55.3 | 307.7 |
| Commodities | -0.6 | 3.8 | 196.9 |
| Taxable Bond | 43.4 | 480.8 | 5,782.9 |
| Municipal Bond | 5.9 | 46.4 | 930.0 |
| Total all long-term funds | 57.1 | 688.2 | 31,114.7 |
Leading Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows as of 1/31/25 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Large Blend | 16.0 | 245.6 | 8,623.2 |
| Ultrashort Bond | 14.6 | 64.3 | 400.8 |
| Digital Assets | 5.8 | 46.2 | 145.5 |
| Multisector Bond | 5.8 | 64.3 | 356.9 |
| Bank Loan | 5.3 | 13.1 | 109.1 |
Lagging Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows as of 1/31/25 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Large Value | -5.4 | -15.7 | 1,930.9 |
| Large Growth | -3.8 | -33.2 | 3,203.6 |
| Moderate Allocation | -3.2 | -32.6 | 815.1 |
| Mid-Cap Growth | -2.9 | -28.9 | 392.9 |
| Health | -2.8 | -24.1 | 199.8 |
Important disclosures
Unless otherwise noted, all data is from FactSet.
The data provided is for informational purposes only and is not an endorsement of any security, mutual fund, sector, or index. This does not illustrate the performance of any John Hancock fund. The information contained here is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. All economic and performance information is historical and does not guarantee future results.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index comprising 30 widely traded blue chip U.S. common stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value-weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The S&P 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. The MSCI Europe, Australasia, and Far East (EAFE) Index tracks the performance of publicly traded large- and mid-cap stocks of companies in those regions. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) shows the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility and is constructed using the implied volatilities of a wide range of S&P 500 Index options. Weekly and year-to-date figures for the VIX show percentage changes, not investment returns. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.
The Treasury yield curve is derived from available U.S. Treasury securities trading in the market and is provided directly by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The spread measures the difference in yield between two government securities. A normal (positive) yield curve occurs when longer-term rates are higher than shorter-term rates. The opposite holds true for an inverted yield curve. Year-to-date changes in U.S. Treasury bond yields are shown in basis points (BPS). One hundred basis points equals one percent.
Oil prices are represented by West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil.
The G20 countries comprise a mix of the world’s largest advanced and emerging economies, representing about two-thirds of the world’s population, 85% of global gross domestic product, and over 75% of global trade.
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