Weekly Market Recap
Week ended November 15
Market-moving news
Momentum reversal
The major U.S. stock indexes pulled back from record highs, retreating around 1% to 3% for the week. The results marked a shift from the previous week, when the indexes surged around 5% to 6% in the immediate aftermath of the November 5 election.
Inflation’s persistence
A monthly Consumer Price Index reading came in slightly above the previous month’s figure, with October’s annual rate of 2.6% topping September’s 2.4% result. While the latest reading was in line with economists’ expectations, it was a further indication of recently uneven progress in bringing inflation closer to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s 2.0% long-term target.
Rising yields
Yields of U.S. government bonds extended their recent climb, with the yield of the 10-year Treasury closing around 4.44% on Friday after briefly eclipsing the 4.50% level for the first time in more than five months. As recently as mid-September, the yield had been as low as 3.62%.
Rate-cut slowdown?
Comments from U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and other Fed officials fueled expectations of a potential slowdown in the pace of further interest-rate cuts, including the prospect that the Fed may forego a cut at its mid-December meeting. On Thursday, Powell said, “The economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates.”
Retail resilience
.A report released on Friday showed that U.S. retail sales topped expectations by rising 0.4% in October relative to the previous month; in addition, September’s initial reading was revised sharply upward with the availability of further data. Another encouraging sign came on Thursday, when new claims for unemployment benefits fell to the lowest level in six months.
Small-cap volatility
A U.S. small-cap stock benchmark, the Russell 2000 Index, was down about 4% for the week, extending small caps’ year-to-date underperformance versus their large-cap peers. The decline reversed much of the nearly 9% surge that the index recorded the previous week.
Earnings scorecard
Major retail companies reported results as quarterly earnings season neared an end. As of Friday, analysts were expecting S&P 500 companies overall to post a 5.4% third-quarter earnings increase compared with the same quarter a year earlier, according to FactSet. That figure was up from the 4.2% growth rate that analysts had expected entering earnings season on September 30.
Bitcoin record
The price of the most widely traded cryptocurrency rose to a record high for the second week in a row. After finishing the previous week at around $77,000, Bitcoin was trading around $91,000 on Friday afternoon. A couple days earlier, the price briefly climbed as high as $93,000.
The week ahead: November 18-22
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Important disclosures
Unless otherwise noted, all data is from FactSet.
The data provided is for informational purposes only and is not an endorsement of any security, mutual fund, sector, or index. This does not illustrate the performance of any John Hancock fund. The information contained here is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. All economic and performance information is historical and does not guarantee future results.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index comprising 30 widely traded blue chip U.S. common stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value-weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The S&P 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. The MSCI Europe, Australasia, and Far East (EAFE) Index tracks the performance of publicly traded large- and mid-cap stocks of companies in those regions. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) shows the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility and is constructed using the implied volatilities of a wide range of S&P 500 Index options. Weekly and year-to-date figures for the VIX show percentage changes, not investment returns. The Russell 2000 Index tracks the performance of approximately 2,000 publicly traded small-cap companies in the United States. The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index (Agg) tracks the performance of U.S. investment-grade bonds in government, asset-backed, and corporate debt markets. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.
The Treasury yield curve is derived from available U.S. Treasury securities trading in the market and is provided directly by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The spread measures the difference in yield between two government securities. A normal (positive) yield curve occurs when longer-term rates are higher than shorter-term rates. The opposite holds true for an inverted yield curve. Year-to-date changes in U.S. Treasury bond yields are shown in basis points (BPS). One hundred basis points equals one percent.
Oil prices are represented by West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil.
The G20 countries comprise a mix of the world’s largest advanced and emerging economies, representing about two-thirds of the world’s population, 85% of global gross domestic product, and over 75% of global trade.
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Investment returns
Equities
U.S. equity size and style total returns as of 11/15/24 (%)
1 week
| -1.2 | -2.0 | -2.7 | Large | |
| -1.5 | -1.6 | -1.9 | Medium | |
| -2.9 | -4.0 | -5.0 | Small | |
| Value | Core | Growth | ||
YTD
| 18.6 | 24.2 | 28.6 | Large | |
| 16.9 | 18.5 | 23.2 | Medium | |
| 13.0 | 15.0 | 17.1 | Small | |
| Value | Core | Growth | ||
Index/market total returns as of 11/15/24 (%)
| Close | 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 43,445.0 | -1.2 | 17.1 |
| NASDAQ Composite Index | 18,680.1 | -3.1 | 25.2 |
| S&P 500 Index | 5,870.6 | -2.0 | 24.6 |
| MSCI EAFE Index | 2,275.3 | -2.6 | 4.8 |
| Cboe Volatility Index | 16.1 | 12.0 | 28.8 |
International/developed (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EAFE | -2.6 | 4.8 |
| Europe | -2.6 | 3.1 |
| France | -2.9 | -4.6 |
| Germany | -1.8 | 10.0 |
| Italy | -1.0 | 13.6 |
| Japan | -2.8 | 7.2 |
| Spain | -1.0 | 13.2 |
| Switzerland | -3.1 | 1.1 |
| U.K. | -2.4 | 6.8 |
Emerging markets (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM | -4.4 | 8.8 |
| Brazil | -1.0 | -18.9 |
| China | -6.1 | 17.9 |
| India | -2.7 | 12.5 |
| Indonesia | -2.4 | -7.2 |
| Korea | -6.5 | -18.0 |
| Mexico | -4.1 | -24.3 |
| Russia | #N/A | #N/A |
| Taiwan | -5.1 | 33.4 |
S&P 500 sectors (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 Index | -2.0 | 24.6 |
| Communication services | -2.1 | 33.2 |
| Consumer discretionary | -1.1 | 22.2 |
| Consumer staples | -1.2 | 15.4 |
| Energy | 0.9 | 16.2 |
| Financials | 1.4 | 34.3 |
| Healthcare | -5.5 | 5.3 |
| Industrials | -2.1 | 23.4 |
| Information tech | -3.2 | 32.6 |
| Materials | -3.3 | 7.9 |
| Real estate | -1.8 | 10.2 |
| Utilities | 0.2 | 28.2 |
Fixed income, currencies, and commodities
U.S. fixed-income style total returns as of 11/15/24 (%)
1 week
| 0.0 | -0.3 | -2.2 | High | Credit quality |
| 0.0 | -0.5 | -2.2 | Medium | |
| -0.2 | -0.4 | -0.6 | Low | |
| Limited | Moderate | Extensive | ||
| Interest-rate sensitivity | ||||
YTD
| 4.1 | 2.1 | -4.8 | High | Credit quality |
| 3.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | Medium | |
| 8.4 | 7.8 | 6.4 | Low | |
| Limited | Moderate | Extensive | ||
| Interest-rate sensitivity | ||||
U.S. Treasury bond yields as of 11/15/24 (%)
| END OF WEEK | PRIOR YEAR END | YTD CHANGE (BPS) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Yr | 4.31 | 4.25 | 6 |
| 10 Yr | 4.44 | 3.88 | 56 |
| 30 Yr | 4.61 | 4.03 | 58 |
| 2-10 spread | 13 | -37 | 50 |
| 10-30 spread | 17 | 16 | 1 |
U.S. bond sector total returns (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| Aggregate | -0.8 | 1.3 |
| Bank loans | 0.2 | 7.4 |
| Convertible | -0.4 | 11.1 |
| Corporate | -1.1 | 3.0 |
| High yield | -0.4 | 7.8 |
| MBS | -0.9 | 1.2 |
| Municipal | 0.1 | 1.5 |
| Preferreds | -2.2 | 5.6 |
| TIPS | -1.0 | 2.2 |
| Treasury | -0.7 | 0.7 |
Global bond total returns (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM Local | -1.7 | -1.5 |
| EMD USD | -1.0 | 6.4 |
| Global Agg | -1.3 | -1.2 |
| Global Agg Ex-U.S. | -1.5 | -2.8 |
| Multiverse | -1.2 | -0.8 |
Commodities (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| BBG Com Ind | -2.0 | 2.0 |
| Oil (WTI) | -4.5 | 5.4 |
| Gold | -4.5 | 23.7 |
Currencies (USD) (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM FX | -1.4 | 0.0 |
| AUD | -2.1 | -5.3 |
| CAD | -1.3 | -6.3 |
| CHF | -1.6 | -5.2 |
| EUR | -2.0 | -4.6 |
| GBP | -2.4 | -0.9 |
| JPY | -1.6 | -9.0 |
GDP
Jobs
Inflation
Ex-U.S.
Regions/countries
| GDP Growth (%) annualized | Inflation Rate (%) CPI | Unemployment Rate (%) | 10-Year Government Bond (%) | Sovereign Credit Rating | |
| Eurozone | 0.9 | 2.0 | 6.3 | _ | _ |
| China | 4.6 | 0.3 | 5.0 | 2.09 | A+ |
| Germany | -0.2 | 2.0 | 6.1 | 2.35 | AAA |
| Japan | -1.0 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.08 | A+ |
| U.K. | 1.0 | 1.7 | 4.3 | 4.47 | AA |
Fund industry overview
Total net flows: open-end funds and ETFs as of 10/31/24 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
| U.S. Equity | -3.1 | 116.3 | 15,432.4 |
| Sector Equity | 0.2 | -20.3 | 1,405.7 |
| Allocation | -5.3 | -86.9 | 1,409.5 |
| International Equity | 4.6 | 5.4 | 4,211.7 |
| Alternative | 7.5 | 33.1 | 242.1 |
| Commodities | 4.0 | 2.6 | 195.4 |
| Taxable Bond | 59.9 | 469.6 | 5,680.2 |
| Municipal Bond | 8.5 | 42.3 | 915.6 |
| Total all long-term funds | 78.7 | 561.6 | 29,791.3 |
Leading Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows as of 10/31/24 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
| Intermediate Core Bond | 16.9 | 132.3 | 1,419.5 |
| Large Blend | 15.7 | 221.1 | 8,018.8 |
| China Region | 9.5 | 7.4 | 38.9 |
| Intermediate Core-Plus Bond | 8.3 | 65.3 | 820.9 |
| Inflation-Protected Bond | 7.5 | -1.7 | 130.8 |
Lagging Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows as of 10/31/24 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
| Large Growth | -10.2 | -42.5 | 3,007.9 |
| Foreign Large Growth | -4.8 | -26.2 | 515.1 |
| Diversified Emerging Mkts | -3.5 | -0.2 | 681.3 |
| Large Value | -3.5 | -31.5 | 1,866.8 |
| Moderate Allocation | -2.7 | -31.7 | 783.9 |
Important disclosures
Unless otherwise noted, all data is from FactSet.
The data provided is for informational purposes only and is not an endorsement of any security, mutual fund, sector, or index. This does not illustrate the performance of any John Hancock fund. The information contained here is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. All economic and performance information is historical and does not guarantee future results.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index comprising 30 widely traded blue chip U.S. common stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value-weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The S&P 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. The MSCI Europe, Australasia, and Far East (EAFE) Index tracks the performance of publicly traded large- and mid-cap stocks of companies in those regions. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) shows the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility and is constructed using the implied volatilities of a wide range of S&P 500 Index options. Weekly and year-to-date figures for the VIX show percentage changes, not investment returns. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.
The Treasury yield curve is derived from available U.S. Treasury securities trading in the market and is provided directly by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The spread measures the difference in yield between two government securities. A normal (positive) yield curve occurs when longer-term rates are higher than shorter-term rates. The opposite holds true for an inverted yield curve. Year-to-date changes in U.S. Treasury bond yields are shown in basis points (BPS). One hundred basis points equals one percent.
Oil prices are represented by West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil.
The G20 countries comprise a mix of the world’s largest advanced and emerging economies, representing about two-thirds of the world’s population, 85% of global gross domestic product, and over 75% of global trade.
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