Weekly Market Recap
Week ended February 7
Market-moving news
Rough road
U.S. stocks slipped to start the week amid the imposition of tariffs and subsequent trade negotiations involving the United States, Canada, Mexico, and China. But stock indexes regained some of that ground, ending up with fractional declines for the week after some of the tariffs were temporarily rolled back.
Mixed jobs report
January’s gain of 143,000 jobs came in short of analysts’ expectations and marked a slowdown from the previous month’s figure. However, there were plenty of positives in the report; initial jobs growth estimates for November and December were revised upward by a combined 100,000 and the unemployment rate slipped from 4.1% to 4.0%.
Rising earnings
More than halfway through earnings season, fourth-quarter results continued to exceed analysts’ expectations. As of Friday, earnings were expected to rise 16.4% compared with the year-ago quarter, based on S&P 500 companies that have already reported plus projections for those that hadn’t yet released results. Prior to earnings season, analysts had forecast an 11.8% growth rate, according to FactSet.
Another gold record
The price of gold set a record high for the second week in a row, extending a nearly three-month price surge for the precious metal. On Friday, gold briefly traded above the $2,900-per-ounce level for the first time before retreating slightly to around $2,890 in afternoon trading. Twelve months ago, gold was trading just above $2,000.
Consumer anxiety
A monthly gauge of U.S. consumer sentiment fell to its lowest level in seven months as survey participants expressed concerns that tariffs could fuel short-term inflation. February’s preliminary reading from the University of Michigan’s sentiment index fell 3.3 points to 67.8, well below economists’ consensus expectations.
Oil slick
The price of U.S. crude oil fell for the third week in a row amid escalating trade tensions and related concerns about a potential softening of oil demand. The commodity was trading around $71 per barrel on Friday afternoon, down from a recent high of about $80 per barrel on January 15.
Yield decline
The yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell for the third week out of the past four as investors reassessed the outlook on inflation and U.S. Federal Reserve policy. Friday’s closing yield was around 4.49%, down from a recent high of 4.80% on January 13.
CPI ahead
A Consumer Price Index report scheduled for release on Wednesday will show whether a recent trend of slightly hotter-than-expected inflation extended into January. The most recent CPI report showed an annual core inflation rate of 3.2% in December, excluding volatile energy and food prices. That result extended the recently uneven progress in bringing inflation closer to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s 2.0% long-term target.
The week ahead: February 10-14
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Investment returns
Equities
U.S. equity size and style total returns as of 2/7/25 (%)
1 week
| -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.3 | Large | |
| -0.7 | 0.0 | 2.1 | Medium | |
| -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.3 | Small | |
| Value | Core | Growth | ||
YTD
| 4.4 | 2.9 | 1.7 | Large | |
| 2.8 | 4.3 | 8.6 | Medium | |
| 1.7 | 2.3 | 2.8 | Small | |
| Value | Core | Growth | ||
Index/market total returns as of 2/7/25 (%)
| Close | 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 44,303.4 | -0.5 | 4.2 |
| NASDAQ Composite Index | 19,523.4 | -0.5 | 1.1 |
| S&P 500 Index | 6,026.0 | -0.2 | 2.6 |
| MSCI EAFE Index | 2,385.3 | 0.2 | 5.5 |
| Cboe Volatility Index | 16.5 | 0.6 | -5.2 |
International/developed (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EAFE | 0.2 | 5.5 |
| Europe | 0.2 | 7.1 |
| France | -0.2 | 7.9 |
| Germany | -0.1 | 9.2 |
| Italy | 1.1 | 9.1 |
| Japan | 0.3 | 1.9 |
| Spain | 2.6 | 10.8 |
| Switzerland | -0.4 | 7.8 |
| U.K. | 0.3 | 5.5 |
Emerging markets (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM | 1.4 | 3.2 |
| Brazil | 0.4 | 12.9 |
| China | 4.8 | 5.8 |
| India | -0.5 | -4.0 |
| Indonesia | -4.3 | -5.2 |
| Korea | 0.6 | 6.9 |
| Mexico | 3.4 | 7.2 |
| Russia | #N/A | #N/A |
| Taiwan | -0.6 | 2.7 |
S&P 500 sectors (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 Index | -0.2 | 2.6 |
| Communication services | -2.1 | 6.8 |
| Consumer discretionary | -3.6 | 0.7 |
| Consumer staples | 1.6 | 3.6 |
| Energy | 1.1 | 3.2 |
| Financials | 0.7 | 7.3 |
| Healthcare | -0.3 | 6.5 |
| Industrials | -0.8 | 4.2 |
| Information tech | 0.8 | -2.1 |
| Materials | -0.6 | 5.0 |
| Real estate | 1.4 | 2.8 |
| Utilities | 0.3 | 3.2 |
Fixed income, currencies, and commodities
U.S. fixed-income style total returns as of 2/7/25 (%)
1 week
| 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.8 | High | Credit quality |
| 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.9 | Medium | |
| 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.1 | Low | |
| Limited | Moderate | Extensive | ||
| Interest-rate sensitivity | ||||
YTD
| 0.4 | 0.6 | 2.2 | High | Credit quality |
| 0.4 | 0.7 | 1.4 | Medium | |
| 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.5 | Low | |
| Limited | Moderate | Extensive | ||
| Interest-rate sensitivity | ||||
U.S. Treasury bond yields as of 2/7/25 (%)
| END OF WEEK | PRIOR YEAR END | YTD CHANGE (BPS) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Yr | 4.29 | 4.23 | 6 |
| 10 Yr | 4.49 | 4.57 | -8 |
| 30 Yr | 4.69 | 4.79 | -10 |
| 2-10 spread | 20 | 34 | -14 |
| 10-30 spread | 20 | 22 | -2 |
U.S. bond sector total returns (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| Aggregate | 0.4 | 0.9 |
| Bank loans | 0.0 | 0.6 |
| Convertible | 0.3 | 3.1 |
| Corporate | 0.3 | 0.9 |
| High yield | 0.0 | 1.4 |
| MBS | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| Municipal | 0.4 | 0.9 |
| Preferreds | 0.1 | 1.5 |
| TIPS | 0.4 | 1.7 |
| Treasury | 0.4 | 0.9 |
Global bond total returns (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM Local | 0.5 | 3.0 |
| EMD USD | 0.5 | 2.0 |
| Global Agg | 0.5 | 1.0 |
| Global Agg Ex-U.S. | 0.5 | 1.1 |
| Multiverse | 0.5 | 1.1 |
Commodities (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| BBG Com Ind | 2.0 | 6.0 |
| Oil (WTI) | -2.0 | 0.1 |
| Gold | 1.9 | 8.7 |
Currencies (USD) (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM FX | 0.5 | 2.5 |
| AUD | 0.5 | 1.3 |
| CAD | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| CHF | -0.1 | -0.3 |
| EUR | -0.5 | -0.1 |
| GBP | -0.1 | -0.8 |
| JPY | 2.3 | 3.8 |
GDP
Jobs
Inflation
Ex-U.S.
Regions/countries
| GDP Growth (%) annualized | Inflation Rate (%) CPI | Unemployment Rate (%) | 10-Year Government Bond (%) | Sovereign Credit Rating | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eurozone | 0.9 | 2.5 | 6.3 | _ | _ |
| China | 5.4 | 0.1 | 5.1 | 1.61 | A+ |
| Germany | -0.2 | 2.3 | 6.2 | 2.38 | AAA |
| Japan | 0.5 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 1.3 | A+ |
| U.K. | 0.9 | 2.5 | 4.4 | 4.48 | AA |
Fund industry overview
Total net flows: open-end funds and ETFs as of 12/31/24 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Equity | 41.7 | 151.4 | 15,912.8 |
| Sector Equity | -8.1 | -10.9 | 1,405.1 |
| Allocation | -6.9 | -81.4 | 1,398.2 |
| International Equity | -4.5 | 8.5 | 4,089.5 |
| Alternative | 7.5 | 48.8 | 286.9 |
| Commodities | -1.9 | 1.8 | 185.1 |
| Taxable Bond | 26.8 | 491.4 | 5,705.1 |
| Municipal Bond | -1.3 | 45.8 | 921.4 |
| Total all long-term funds | 50.3 | 664.1 | 30,224.6 |
Leading Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows as of 12/31/24 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Large Blend | 47.1 | 229.7 | 8,351.7 |
| Intermediate Core Bond | 12.8 | 136.4 | 1,433.4 |
| Foreign Large Blend | 12.2 | 66.4 | 1,636.6 |
| Ultrashort Bond | 8.8 | 48.6 | 384.8 |
| Digital Assets | 7.3 | 42.0 | 129.6 |
Lagging Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows as of 12/31/24 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Long Government | -6.4 | 16.6 | 163.9 |
| Foreign Large Growth | -5.4 | -22.3 | 451.9 |
| Health | -4.0 | -22.7 | 191.0 |
| High Yield Bond | -3.7 | 25.7 | 362.7 |
| Europe Stock | -3.7 | -4.6 | 69.2 |
Important disclosures
Unless otherwise noted, all data is from FactSet.
The data provided is for informational purposes only and is not an endorsement of any security, mutual fund, sector, or index. This does not illustrate the performance of any John Hancock fund. The information contained here is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. All economic and performance information is historical and does not guarantee future results.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index comprising 30 widely traded blue chip U.S. common stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value-weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The S&P 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. The MSCI Europe, Australasia, and Far East (EAFE) Index tracks the performance of publicly traded large- and mid-cap stocks of companies in those regions. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) shows the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility and is constructed using the implied volatilities of a wide range of S&P 500 Index options. Weekly and year-to-date figures for the VIX show percentage changes, not investment returns. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.
The Treasury yield curve is derived from available U.S. Treasury securities trading in the market and is provided directly by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The spread measures the difference in yield between two government securities. A normal (positive) yield curve occurs when longer-term rates are higher than shorter-term rates. The opposite holds true for an inverted yield curve. Year-to-date changes in U.S. Treasury bond yields are shown in basis points (BPS). One hundred basis points equals one percent.
Oil prices are represented by West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil.
The G20 countries comprise a mix of the world’s largest advanced and emerging economies, representing about two-thirds of the world’s population, 85% of global gross domestic product, and over 75% of global trade.
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