Why 2017 could be a comeback year for international value stocks

Asset classes and investment strategies, much like celebrities and dieting fads, can go in and out of fashion.

Within my area of expertise, international value equities have clearly been out of fashion; as a group, value stocks have been closely associated with cyclical industries such as materials, industrials, and financials. These stocks have tended to perform well when economic fundamentals are improving. In light of the events that have unfolded in the last decade, it has been unsurprising that value stocks have fallen behind their growth peers. Value stocks' earnings dropped by 23% during that span,¹ and much of the decline was attributed to falling earnings for commodities producers as prices of oil and many other commodities dropped. The financials sector also weighed on value stocks' earnings, as banks and insurance companies faced headwinds from low interest rates.

Within international equities, value posted an average annualized return, net of dividends, of 1.90% from January 1, 2006, through September 30, 2016, compared with 3.99% for growth.² While value enjoyed a stretch of outperformance versus growth in 2013–2014, its last period of sustained leadership ended in 2005, prior to the global financial crisis.²

However, international value stocks could be poised to come back, as the price premium that investors have been paying for international growth equities has grown in recent years to levels that we believe may be unsustainable. The average P/E ratio multiple for growth equities rose from about 13 in July 2012 to 20 as of May 31, 2016; the multiple for value rose much more slowly from about 10 to 12.² The increase in valuation for growth stocks was not driven by a corresponding rise in earnings, as earnings of companies in the MSCI World ex-USA Growth Index remained flat during the period.¹

Overpaying for growth rarely ends well. From our perspective, owning staples and healthcare stocks at 27 times earnings or higher, for below average earnings growth cannot be sustainable.So where can one expect earnings growth over the next three to five years, one might ask? Interestingly, we believe it is exactly where value resides today: European financials and global industrials. We believe that investors have also been too quick to dismiss the potential for quick earnings turnarounds in these two segments of the market, and a reassessment is due. The vicious cycle of falling commodity prices and interest rates should abate as global economic growth stabilizes. Investors may be responding to some of these trends already, as value outperformed growth during the third quarter of 2016.

While it is difficult to tell at this point whether this recent performance shift is a sign of things to come, we believe that there is potential for meaningful outperformance. International value stocks have historically recorded a period of strong recovery following a period of pronounced underperformance relative to its growth partners. Traditionally, the period of outperformance would be accompanied by improvements in the macro environment, which is absent today. However, we would argue that in light of the magnitude of the underperformance in the past decade, a“perfect” environment may not be a necessary condition for international value stocks to stage a meaningful comeback. Instead, we believe the combination of stabilizing oil prices, a shift toward fiscal policy, and a stable China could be enough to trigger a recovery.

1 Bloomberg, 2016.

2 Bloomberg, the MSCI EAFE Value Index versus the MSCI EAFE Growth Index, 2016.