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Here’s a look at what’s at stake nationally in the November 5 election, analysis of historical stock market trends in election years, and portfolio considerations for long- and short-term investors.
Voters will choose a president and decide the makeup of the entire House of Representatives and about one-third of the Senate.
1 Two special elections will take place concurrently with the 2024 regular Senate elections: one in California to fill the temporary vacancy created by Democrat Diane Feinstein's September 29, 2023, death and one in Nebraska, following Republican Ben Sasse’s January 8, 2023, resignation.
Financial markets have generally shown resilience throughout four-year presidential election cycles, with changes in political party control of the White House and Congress appearing to have little discernible difference on long-term stock market performance. While election seasons can stir up strong emotions in investors and drive market volatility, trying to time the markets or make investment decisions based on perceived election trends could prove unwise versus simply investing for the long term.
Growth of a hypothetical $1,000 investment in the S&P 500 Index, 1/31/28–12/31/23
Source: Morningstar, 2024. A logarithmic scale has been applied to the growth of $1,000 in order to more clearly show changing values during the early decades of the 1928–2023 time span. Dates of political party control of the White House correspond with presidential inauguration months. The S&P 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 of the largest companies in the United States. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. This figure is for illustrative purposes only and does not represent any specific investment or imply any guaranteed rate of return.
S&P 500 Index performance, 1928–2023
Source: Morningstar Direct, January 2024. The S&P 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 of the largest companies in the United States. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Average annual returns of the S&P 500 Index when different political parties were in power, 1928–2023 (%)
Source: Morningstar Direct, January 2024. The S&P 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 of the largest companies in the United States. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Cumulative average returns of the S&P 500 Index during 18-month periods before and after presidential and midterm elections versus nonelection periods, 1/31/28–12/31/23 (%)
Source: Morningstar, 2024. The 18-month periods used to calculate election year cumulative average monthly returns began in January of each year of a November presidential or midterm election and ended in June of the following post-election year. The nonelection 18-month periods began in January of each nonelection year and ended in June of the following year. The S&P 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 of the largest companies in the United States. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Annual returns of a 60/40 portfolio, 1954–2023 (%)
Source: Morningstar, 2024. The 60/40 portfolio results are based on performance of a 60% allocation to the S&P 500 Index and a 40% allocation to 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds. The S&P 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 of the largest companies in the United States. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This figure is for illustrative purposes only and does not represent any specific investment or imply any guaranteed rate of return.
Cboe Volatility Index 30-day moving average in the 100 days before and after U.S. presidential elections, 1992–2020
Source: Cboe Exchange, Inc., 2024. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) tracks the performance of the market's real-time expectations of volatility over the coming 30 days. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Average net fund flows in 4-year presidential election cycles, 1988–2023 (US$B)
Source: ISS Market Intelligence SIMFUND, January 2024. Fund flows reflect flows of mutual funds and exchange-traded funds, excluding funds of funds. Equity fund averages reflect the sum of U.S. equity fund and international equity fund category flows; money market fund averages reflect the money market fund category. Past performance goes not guarantee future results.
Comparing outcomes from 3 investment strategies in the 24 4-year election cycles from 1928 through 2023, as measured by the growth of a hypothetical $10,000 investment
Source: Morningstar, January 2024. The starting $10,000 in the fully invested strategy is entirely invested in the S&P 500 Index throughout each 4-year cycle. The regular contributions strategy starts with $9,000 in a cash equivalent, the Ibbotson Associates (IA) SBBI U.S. 30-day Treasury Bill Index, and $1,000 in the S&P 500 Index. In the election year that starts each 4-year cycle, the regular contributions strategy makes $1,000 contributions from the IA SBBI U.S. 30-day Treasury Bill Index into the S&P 500 Index during each of the 9 months leading up to the November election, so that the initial $10,000 is then fully invested in stocks; through the rest of the cycle, the account balance remains fully invested. The sitting on the sidelines strategy is fully invested in the IA SBBI U.S. 30-day Treasury Bill Index throughout each election year and then invested fully in the S&P 500 Index in the subsequent three years of each cycle. The S&P 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 of the largest companies in the United States. The IA SBBI U.S. 30-day Treasury Bill Index tracks the performance of a single issue of outstanding Treasury Bill which matures closest to, but not beyond, 30 days from the rebalancing date. It is not possible to invest in an index. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
December 8, 2023
Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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