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Discover John Hancock Bond and Investment Grade Bond Funds
Senior Portfolio Manager Jeffrey N. Given, CFA, shares valuable insight into the current state of the fixed-income market after the second quarter of 2024. He explains why yield curve positioning can be more effective than shifting duration and offers his outlook on where the team is seeing value.
After surging inflation peaked at 9% in June 2022, recent data shows the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) has been successful in its efforts to slow rising prices. However, cracks are forming in the labor market, with rising unemployment and slowing jobs growth. In response, the Fed cut the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points at its September meeting—the first cut since March 2020. With the LEI still negative, it’s too early to tell if the Fed can achieve a soft landing, and economic uncertainty remains high.
Elevated yields have created an asymmetric return profile for intermediate-term bonds, with potential for both income and price appreciation. If the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rises to 6% over the next 12 months, we could see high single-digit negative performance. Conversely, if the yield falls, the index could achieve high single-digit positive returns, with even greater upside if yields return to prepandemic levels.
Hypothetical performance only, assumes no spread changes and holds the U.S. Treasury yield curve constant. The green cells indicate positive hypothetical performance over the designated time period, with darker shading indicating a higher positive return. The red cells indicate negative performance over the designated time period, with darker shading indicating a lower negative return.
Source: FactSet as of 9/30/24. This illustration is hypothetical and does not represent any specific investment or imply any guaranteed rate of return. No forecasts are guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
A steepening yield curve, like the one we’re experiencing now, is common in rate-cutting cycles. In such environments, intermediate bonds often outperform short and longer maturity bonds. Comparing the duration-neutral performance of the yield curve’s belly and wings shows why focusing only on interest-rate direction can miss the nuances of how the shape of the yield curve will shift in response to monetary policy adjustments. As we enter this new policy regime, we believe that allocating to the belly of the yield curve may offer active managers an additional lever to add value for investors.
Source: Bloomberg, as of 9/30/24. Returns greater than one year are annualized. Yield curve belly performance is represented by the Bloomberg U.S. 5–7 Year Treasury Bond Index. Yield curve wing performance weighs the blended Bloomberg U.S. 1–3 Year Treasury Bond Index and Bloomberg U.S. 25+ Year Treasury Bond Index to match the duration of the Bloomberg U.S. 5–7 Year Treasury Bond Index. Past performance does not guarantee future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.
Several areas of the U.S. fixed-income market are currently offering attractive valuations relative to their history. High-quality segments such as mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and investment-grade corporate bonds look particularly compelling and could hold up well if the economic outlook weakens. Actively managed core and core-plus strategies can capitalize on these favorable valuations by tilting toward these segments, enhancing potential price appreciation while limiting downside risk in the event of a recession.
Source: FactSet, as of 9/30/24. The Bloomberg U.S. Corporate Investment Grade Index tracks the Investment-Grade, fixed rate, taxable corporate bond market. The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Securitized Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) Index tracks the performance of investment-grade U.S. securitized mortgage-backed securities. Savings, money market and 12-month CD rates are measured by the FDIC national averages. Bond yields are represented by the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index, which tracks the performance of U.S. Investment grade bonds in government, asset-backed, and corporate debt markets. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Established asset manager with global resources and expertise extending across equity, fixed-income, and alternative investments as well as asset allocation strategies
| Fund | Morningstar category | Use for |
|---|---|---|
|
JHBIX
Bond Fund Class I
|
Morningstar category Intermediate Core-Plus Bond | Use for Diversifying income holdings |
| Morningstar category Intermediate Core Bond | Use for High-quality income opportunities |
As we commemorate 50 years since the launch of John Hancock Bond Fund, hear what our team is thinking as we celebrate this special milestone.
Separately managed accounts (SMAs) can be an ideal solution for high-net-worth institutional or accredited investors looking for a more tailored approach to their investments. Find out more about how our SMA capabilities can help provide a level of personalization and control to meet specialized and sophisticated investment needs. Explore our SMAs.
March 1, 2024
May 3, 2024
September 24, 2024
The Composite Index of Leading Indicators (LEI) is published monthly by The Conference Board and tracks 10 economic components whose changes tend to precede changes in the overall economy. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) tracks the average change of prices over time by urban consumers for a market basket of goods and services. The S&P 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. Benchmark return performance of the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Index. It is not possible to invest directly into an index. U.S. aggregate is represented by the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index, which tracks U.S. investment-grade bond market, including treasuries, corporate bonds, mortgage-backed securities (MBS), asset-backed securities (ABS), and commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS). U.S. government is represented by the Bloomberg U.S. Government Bond Index, which tracks the performance of U.S. Treasury and government agency bonds. EM sovereign (US$) is represented by the J.P. Morgan EMBI Global Diversified Index, which tracks U.S. dollar-denominated sovereign and quasi-sovereign emerging market bonds. U.S. investment-grade corp. is represented by the Bloomberg U.S. Corporate Index, which tracks U.S. investment-grade, corporate bonds. U.S. high-yield corp. is represented by the ICE BofA U.S. High Yield Index, which tracks U.S. dollar-denominated, below-investment-grade corporate debt. EM corp. (US$) is represented by the J.P. Morgan CEMBI Diversified Index, which tracks U.S. dollar-denominated corporate bonds issued by emerging market companies. U.S. CMBS is represented by the Bloomberg U.S. CMBS Index, which tracks U.S. dollar-denominated commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS). U.S. ABS is represented by the Bloomberg U.S. ABS Index, which tracks U.S. asset-backed securities. U.S. MBS is represented by the Bloomberg U.S. MBS Index, which tracks U.S. dollar-denominated mortgage-backed securities (MBS). Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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© 2024 Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. The information contained herein: (1) is proprietary to Morningstar and/or its providers; (2) may not be copied or distributed; and (3) is not warranted to be accurate, complete, or timely. Neither Morningstar nor its content providers are responsible for any damages or losses arising from any use of this information.
Fixed-income investments are subject to interest-rate and credit risk; their value will normally decline as interest rates rise or if an issuer is unable or unwilling to make principal or interest payments. Investments in higher-yielding, lower-rated securities include a higher risk of default. Foreign investing, especially in emerging markets, has additional risks, such as currency and market volatility and political and social instability. Mortgage- and asset-backed securities may be sensitive to changes in interest rates, and may be subject to early repayment and the market’s perception of issuer creditworthiness. Liquidity—the extent to which a security may be sold or a derivative position closed without negatively affecting its market value, if at all—may be impaired by reduced trading volume, heightened volatility, rising interest rates, and other market conditions. The use of hedging and derivatives could produce disproportionate gains or losses and may increase costs. Fund distributions generally depend on income from underlying investments and may vary or cease altogether in the future. Please see the fund’s prospectus for additional risks.
